North Korea: Different Perspectives

Yesterday, when I took a morning trip into Seoul to do a bit of food shopping, I bought an English-language Korean newspaper (The Korea Times) to read on the subway ride.

Several articles in the newspaper offered views on the current series of threats coming out of North Korea, threats which include preemptive nuclear strikes against South Korea and the United States, as well as American military bases in Japan and on Guam.  In the last few days NK has closed the industrial park that it shares with SK, has initiated steps to launch one or more missiles  and has warned all foreigners living and working in SK to evacuate.

One Seoul analyst stated that he believes the real audience of all of NK's rhetoric to be North Koreans, since Kim Jong-un apparently wants to maximize a crisis scenario in order to draw attention away from internal problems such as food shortages, economic woes, lack of freedom, etc.

Since next week (April 15th) is the anniversary of Kim's grandfather--Kil Il-sung, NK's founder--it's likely the threats will continue to build up to that pinnacle.

Another NK expert in Seoul said Kim is preparing the foundations for his "kingdom" or regime.  He needs to unite the NK public and military behind him to that he will be able to extend his rule for a long time.  Also, after seeing Libya surrender its nuclear weapons, Kim may feel that he needs nuclear arms in order to survive.

Another view presented in the paper is that while Kim learned the art of brinkmanship from his father, he is not as talented (perhaps because of his young age) at it and has made some geopolitical calculations that may come back to bite him.

When looking at China's role in the current conflict, the paper stated that China has, of course, always propped up the NK regime, but China seems to be growing increasingly frustrated with Kim.  China wants a stable NK; it does not want an exodus of North Koreans flooding into China as might happen in the event of an armed conflict.  China also does not want Kim to fight and lose, which might place a western-style democracy on China's border.

I personally found it interesting that when the focus of much of the international news shifted away from NK due to the death in England of Margaret Thatcher, NK found a way to jump back in the spotlight with its declaration that all foreigners should leave SK and with its continued apparent preparation to fire a missile or two.

There is a general belief everywhere I look or listen that NK is creating this crisis for one other reason: so that it can demand concessions from other countries when it finally--and assuredly "reluctantly"--agrees to talks.  Indeed, some analysts has suggested that Kim--through forcing other countries to mobilize to meet his threats and though warnings to diplomatic staffs in NK and to foreigners in SK--is engaging in a kind of "economic warfare", and this will give him further leverage when peace talks resume.

Or so he thinks.  Many believe that NK has engaged in this type of artificially-created crisis one time too many, and that other countries like the U.S. now understand that NK will never keep its promises, no matter how much aid it is given.

So, the real question, some are wondering, is "What is left to negotiate for?"

A lot will probably happen in the next week, as most believe Kim is not finished making threats in order to escalate his created crisis further.